I Am a Nobleman in England

"This week the U.S. dollar rebounded against European currencies and commodity currencies. The euro against the U.S. dollar, the British pound against the U.S. dollar, etc. have carried out technical adjustments from their relatively high levels recently, with a range of about 3%. The U.S. dollar has not rebounded significantly against the dollar.

　　 Although the US dollar has been slightly stronger this week, it is expected to return to its weakness after a short technical rebound. . . "

　　 "I don't agree with this view!"

As the meeting progressed, everyone’s discussions became more and more enthusiastic. The discussion on gold came to an end. The foreign exchange market became the focus of the meeting. After all, everyone knows that the boss is currently short selling the euro. Everyone wants to invest in this time. In, behave and make yourself stand out.

　　 As for this, Arthur was optimistic and encouraged everyone to argue. He smiled and smiled at an analyst who just spoke: "Scott, tell me your opinion."

"Okay, boss. You guys, I believe everyone has seen the US economic data released today. They are generally performing well. This undoubtedly raises investors’ expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates earlier. The US dollar has strengthened substantially on Friday, 11th. The index once hit a one-month high, the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the dollar, and once hit a two-month low.

The Bald Eagle’s Ministry of Commerce announced on Friday that the monthly rate of retail sales in the United States rose by 1.3% in November, but only 0.7% is expected. The monthly rate of core retail sales rose by 1.2%, which is expected to be 100%. Four quarters.

　　 A report released on Friday showed that US consumer confidence rose in early December and reached its highest point since September. After the retail sales data, the U.S. dollar has been on a rising trend. After the release of consumer confidence data, the U.S. dollar’s ​​rally was similar to "crazy". The euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the U.S. dollar, the lowest level since the beginning of the month. "

The analyst named Scott talked freely, and all kinds of data were readily available to support his views. Whether it was the boss of Arthur or the others in the conference room, they all listened to him intently. analysis.

"Retail sales data is strong, and the consumer confidence data released subsequently are also stronger than expected. These data further support the strengthening of the US dollar. The market has been shorting the US dollar for some time, but as the US economic outlook improves, shorting the US dollar is attractive to investors Power is reduced.

　　 Therefore, I think the dollar rebound today may be the beginning of a further improvement in dollar sentiment in the market outlook. As long as there are more US economic data to support the view that the recovery is further established, the dollar will rise further in the short term. "

Scott’s analysis is very well-informed and it has been recognized by many people present. One of the analysts said in a whispered discussion: "I fully agree with Scott’s analysis. The strong US data will improve investment. The risk appetite of investors has led to the strengthening of high-yield currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar. But the current better US data can strengthen investors’ expectations of the Fed’s early interest rate hike, which can help the dollar rise.

　　 Don’t forget, everyone, the rise in U.S. Treasury yields also helped the dollar rebound, especially against the dollar. The outlook for the dollar is improving. "

Arthur nodded intently. He was not biased towards xing. To be honest, he felt that these views of his subordinates were very reasonable, because everyone could come up with theories and data to support their views. In that case, he It is even more difficult to make a statement.

　　 So, he set his sights on Angela, an investment and financial consultant who has been listening since the beginning of the meeting and did not express any opinions or opinions, and smiled and asked, "Angela, what do you think?"

　　 Following Arthur’s question, the originally noisy meeting room immediately became quiet. Everyone turned their attention to Angela, who has become a key figure in the right arm of the young boss.

And Angela took everyone’s gaze calmly, and said with a calm smile: “Boss, the information on US data recovery, such as the fall in the unemployment rate, will indeed strengthen the Fed’s early interest rate hike expectations, which is also the stage where the dollar is generated. The logic of xing rebound.

　　 But I think this process is only technical, it will not be very strong, and it will not last long. The market sentiment turbulence caused is normal. After all, the market has risen for 9 months since March.

　　 I have doubts about the stabilization of the US economy. Because at the end of October, nine U.S. banks closed in a single day, setting a new record since the financial crisis. This undoubtedly exposed the loose monetary environment that failed to offset the liquidity pressure of the U.S. banking industry, and the problem of non-performing loans was still weakening the lending capacity of the banking industry.

　　 The hidden worries of fundamentals will restrict the recovery of private demand. The deleveraging of households and financial sectors is not smooth. Although the household savings rate in the United States is rising, the debt ratio has not fallen. It now appears that the so-called "consumer deleveraging" is a dead end for rebalancing, and it simply cannot lead the US economy to balance.

　　 More importantly, the weak dollar will raise the overall operating costs of the traditional industrial sector. In other words, only traditional resources and energy are soaked in "water" to fundamentally ensure that a large number of investments continue to enter the low-carbon economy and fully guarantee the safety of these investments.

　　Only by "re-industrialization" can we realize the growth of disposable income, and the emergence of new wealth can reduce the debt ratio of households and countries. This is strategy. Therefore, before the United States completes its new strategic layout, the global economy will be soaked in the flowing "ocean" for a long time.

　　 Of course, the above logic must have a premise, the weak dollar and inflation must be controllable. It depends on the ability of the Americans and whether market expectations will actually emerge. It seems that this is possible now.

　　 This is a long-term process. Now I really can't believe that the bubble will burst in 2010, and it may not be true in 2011. It is hard to say in the future. Before the establishment of new economic factors, the global commodity and emerging market asset bubbles will not really burst. Of course, there will be turbulence, and even the stage is very intense, but overall, asset and commodity prices will become very expensive.

　　 At the same time, the stock turbulence will be great, because it is not an asset in the general sense, but to some extent an emotional response to asset price turbulence.

　　It depends on whether investors dare to extrapolate and capitalize the improvement of short-term performance infinitely. This is the key to the new valuation upward shift.

If the market agrees that this kind of improvement is staged and there is great uncertainty in the future, this kind of growth will become meaningless ~www.NovelMTL.com~ Maybe the market is short-sighted and irrational, willing There is no way to treat uncertain xing fluke as certain, but this money-making model is zero-sum, and it depends on who is the last banger.

In summary, my view is that the dollar will continue to weaken. This is a strategy formulated by the Bald Eagle. Even if there will be a rebound in the short term, it will not change the general trend. Gold will still be the main safe-haven investment option, and assets will increase. The more expensive it is, the European debt crisis will intensify and the euro will continue to depreciate. The bearish outlook for the exchange rate remains unchanged. The target is 1.4480 to 1.4450, and it may even rush to 1.4280. "

　　 Angela's series of analyses and conclusions caused a brief silence in the conference room, followed by various discussions. People in twos and threes got together and began to discuss some of Angela's views.

　　 And Arthur nodded to Angela, who was showing appreciation, and said, "A wonderful analysis!"

　　 I have to say that these conclusions of Angela are basically the same as the development trend in his memory, which is very rare in Arthur's eyes. At least in the future, he doesn't need to worry about Angela's ability, worry about what he believes is inhuman.

This meeting about the strategy for the coming year lasted for more than three hours. The meeting did not end until lunch time was approaching. This meeting also brought Arthur many surprises, especially when combined with memory to see and let him I am full of confidence in my team.

　　 The future is promising!

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