I Have a Store In the World of American Comics

Chapter 0260 Phase Replacement Skill Card

The following is a well-known account of the Monty Hall problem, from a letter Craig F. Whitaker sent to Show Magazine's Marilyn Voss Savant column in 1990:

"Suppose you're on a game show and you're asked to choose one of three doors: one with a car behind it.

Behind the other two are goats. You choose a door, let's say door one, and the host, who knows what's behind the door, opens another door with a goat behind it, let's say door three.

He then asks you: "Do you want to choose door number two?" Is it an advantage for you to switch your choice? "

The above account is an adaptation of a account Steve Selvin sent to AmeriStatisti magazine in February 1975.

As mentioned above, the Monty Hall problem is an extension of the game show segment; Monty Hall does open the wrong door on the show to add excitement, but does not allow contestants to change their choices .

As Monty Hall wrote to Selvin:

"If you've been on my show, you'll think the game is fast—there's no exchange once you've chosen."

The name "Monty Hall Problem" was first used in Selviatisti's letter - August 1975.

A substantially identical problem appeared in Martin Gardner's Mathematical Games column in 1959 as the "Three Prisoners Problem."

The selection process for Gardner's version is clearly described, avoiding the preconditions implied in the Show Magazine version.

The first appearance of this question may be in Joseph Bertrand's Calculdes probabilités in 1889.

In the book, this problem is called the "Bertrand Box Paradox".

Suppose Mueser and Granberg come up with a lake-free statement of the problem by clarifying the details and adding explicit definition to the moderator's behavior:

There are now three doors, only one has a car, and the other two have goats.

The car was previously placed behind one of the three doors.

Contestants choose one of three doors. He didn't know what was behind any door until he picked it.

The host knows what's behind every door.

If a contestant picks a door with a goat, the host must pick another door with a goat.

If a contestant picks a door with a car, the host, etc. may pick one of the other two doors with a goat.

The contestant will be asked whether to keep his original choice or switch to the remaining door.

Can switching options increase a contestant's chances of getting a car?

Solution one:

The answer to the question is yes: the chances of winning the car are doubled when the contestant moves to the other door rather than staying with the original choice.

There are three possible cases, all with equal probability (1/3):

The contestants pick goat number one, and the host picks goat number two. Converting will win the car.

The contestant picks goat number two, and the host picks goat number one. Converting will win the car.

"The contestant picks the car, the host picks the sheep number one. The transition will fail", and "The contestant picks the car, the host picks the sheep number two. The transition will fail." The probability of this situation is .

Another solution is to assume that you will always switch choices, and the only possibility to win is to choose a door without a car, because the host must then open another door with a goat, eliminating the choice after switching the possibility of going to another sheep.

Since the total number of doors is three and the total number of doors with goats is two, the probability of switching selections and winning the car is 2/3, the same as the probability of picking the door with the goat in the initial selection.

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"Reflection of the Demon Mirror", quantity: 1, item classification level: B-level, single original price: 10,000 points of fame + 1 B-level quest main line, current single price: 6,000 legendary points + 1 B-level quest main line.

The free area of ​​the daily store: "Phase Replacement Skill Card", quantity: 1, item classification level: B-level, single original price: 10000 points of fame + 2 B-level quest main lines, current single price: free.

Description: The Guards have been searching for heroes who can help them fight the Scourge, and finally they discover the mysterious fairy dragon living on the lost continent.

After explaining her conflict with Queen Agris, she decides to send her personal bodyguard, Puck, to turn the tide of the war.

Although Puck is slender and mischievous, he has enough to prove himself on the battlefield.

The explosive magic ball that can pass through all enemies, fairy dust, and the ability to paralyze all enemies with unparalleled illusions, teach all enemies who fight against her, the so-called not to judge people by their appearance.

What appeared in front of them was endless deception.

The user can change the dimension he is in for a short time without taking any damage temporarily.

The phase transition state can be aborted at any time.

Duration Max: 6 seconds, Cooldown: 75 seconds.

hint:

Without the phantom orb spell, the phase replacement skill can only be used in situ.

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Kohler's Dagger, Quantity: 1, Item Classification Level: A Grade, Single Original Price: 10,000 Legend Points + 1 A-Grade Quest Mainline~www.readwn.com~ Current Single Price: Free.

describe:

One of the most talked about and controversial changes in 6.50B.

The escape dagger has become a "raid dagger" that can be used almost exclusively on offense.

The ability of escape daggers to ensure survival has dropped to the lowest point in history, and the effect is not even as outstanding as Lothar's Edge. Heroes such as Dwarven Musketeers who almost only use escape daggers to save their lives will have to permanently give up escape daggers and choose other options.

For heroes who need to escape the dagger to hit the first, the modification that cannot be used for 3 seconds after taking damage also has a certain negative impact - especially in AOE confrontation - imagine the centaur chieftain hiding in the corner is about to jump In an instant, the king of the other gods suddenly unleashes the wrath of the ULT Thor.

Instant movement, maximum distance 1500, can only be used when no damage is received within 3 seconds, cooldown: 18 seconds.

hint:

Kohler's Dagger can only be used on a detected map.

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After Zhou Wenwen and Gu glanced at each other, Zhou Wenwen immediately rushed into the world, and Gu Yi immediately used his own power to seal the space and use the time gem to pause time.

And Zhou Wenwen, who rushed into that world here, came to the land of blood roses, which is the abyss, in the blink of an eye.

At this time, Zhou Wenwen also saw that the guy who sent out the red energy wave was chasing and killing his own clone that was running everywhere.

She looks like a demon like Rannex, and she is also a female demon. The difference is that the horn is a single-pointed horn, there is no clothes on her body to cover her body, and she is carrying a large scarlet sword in her hand, which makes Zhou Wenwen pay attention to her. .

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Chapter 0261 Where should the notice go to rescue the saint?