I'm Really Not Faye

Chapter 154 Three Questions

The five guards of the Enti kingdom who were all in silver armor on the opposite side asked, and stared at Lynch’s every move.

These naturally intelligent and observant high elves directly analyzed Lynch’s inner movements, from his pores to breathing rate and pulse.

“Although these elves didn’t use the mind-reading spells rashly, they have already studied your expression. This test begins at the moment you think about it.”

After the elves asked questions, the silent ghost suddenly spoke.

Lynch also understands this.

He and his friends once met a master of micro expressions. After the opponent asked them to draw a card from the deck and write it down, the master gradually dangled the cards in front of them.

As a result, his friends were all guessed of the chosen card without exception, even those who were born with facial paralysis.

Only Lynch was not guessed which card he picked twice in a row.

Because he forgot after reading it, and remembered it again when he needed it.

At this time, Lynch also exerted this kind of specialty, and at the same time the whole body of will was hidden in the memory palace, pacing beside the bookshelf of “Probability Theory” and “Game Theory”.

There was a time when these books were dusted for years after reading them, and he thought he would no longer use opportunities in this life.

After all, a group of people chatting in the bar are all about getting rich and getting rich, Tiancai and eldest sister, the Eight Trigrams in the circle, who would be boring to talk about the game theory prisoner’s dilemma.

Even in the dilemma that the number of teenagers in Chong Duan is declining, and Go is gradually becoming a niche hobby, it is also relied on artificial intelligence to reignite, making learning Go one of the hobbies of countless parents.

“You must change the door. It is possible to switch to door B, and it is possible to change to 13 if you don’t.” Ghost immediately analyzed it to Lynch.

It’s not that he reminded Lynch, but this “counter-intuitive” problem, which can be fooled by ordinary people, but for himself, and even for the “natural spellcaster” Lynch, it is a problem that can be reflected with a little thought. .

Lynch nodded similarly.

In fact, this three-door problem has a special term-“Monty Hall problem”.

It was a host named “Monty Hall” who played a similar game. The only difference was that there was a car or a goat behind the door.

The prototype of the problem comes from the “Three Prisoners Problem” mentioned by Martin Gardner in “Mathematics Game” in 59 years.

Later, after a columnist who was rumored to have an IQ test of more than 200, Marilyn Voss Savant gave the option of “changing” in the magazine, which caused an uproar, and tens of thousands of readers wrote to oppose it, and many of them were colleges. Department of PhD.

Intuitively, it should be 12.

Lynch looked at the five high elves who were expecting his answer. Undoubtedly, their attitudes at the moment have become much more kind, as if they treat him as a guest.

“For this question, the first point of view is to change the choice. The probability of getting the Palace Scroll is 23, and the probability of not changing is 13.”

“Another view is that the probability of the scroll of the palace behind the door is 12.”

Upon hearing this, the five high elves on the opposite side showed confused gazes.

Most of the “natural casters” who come here will give their first point of view when facing this “simple” problem.

Even the ghost did not understand what medicine Lynch sold in Calabash.

It can only exhort, “You’d better be cautious in your answer. The elves love freedom and diverse things, like to express their own personality, value and protect the freedom of themselves and others, and most of them are kind.”

“But this is not a simple academic dispute, but a rigid test answer.”

“Especially when it comes to magic, they are more like diehard rationalists. This is also the reason why the Closed Door Training of the higher elves locked the country here. They believe that ordinary magic has deviated from the original normal track of magic.”

“The’natural casters’ who can come here are more like high elves reinjecting into the correction zone of major magic civilizations. It is a process of throwing stones to ask for directions. The previous Urel angered the high in terms of ideas. Elves, if you stick to a certain concept, it is very likely that the entire Blue Star and the enti kingdom of the high elves will be cut off again.”

The implication is that even if he holds the truth, if the examiner cannot understand, he will be rejected by a vote, and even some senses in the future will be affected by the argument.

Because the interview itself is not a place to explore right and wrong, but a place to prove one’s own.

For some lawyers who have to arguing with the judges about the merits of life and death, in most cases, there is naturally no good fruit, let alone this kind of venue involving ideological disputes.

Ghost also advised Lynch to be cautious and conservative, and don’t think about show operations here.

Lynch just smiled at this, he naturally knew.

“If you know which door is behind the hall scroll, then deliberately open the door to go home scroll. It can be extended to 100 doors. After I choose one door, among the remaining 99 doors, the host will even Open 98 doors of the scroll home, and then ask me if I can change it.”

“Obviously, the hit rate for changing is 99100, and if not changing is 100%. This is also the reason why changing the door can change the probability from 13 Ascension to 23 in this question.”

From the perspective of the frequency school, the probability of choosing the original A gate is naturally 13, but the essence of “changing” is to choose the BC two, so there will be a probability of 23.

Even after applying Bayes’ theorem to calculate the conditional probability, the result will only be 23.

However, Lynch shook his head.

“After I choose door A from the three doors, the probability of the hall scroll behind the door is 13. The probability of door B and door C having hall scroll is also 13.”

“According to the host’s next clue. If the hall scroll is behind door B, the host will open door C. If the hall scroll is behind door C, the host will open door B.”

“Therefore, if I change my choice, as long as the hall scroll is behind door B or door C, I will win; if I stick to my original intention, I will only win if the hall scroll is behind door A.”

“This is the reason why the Monte Carlo method just mentioned, using experiments to simulate, will find that the probability of exchange is higher, which is close to about 23.”

At this time, the five high elves nodded in understanding. This was exactly what they expected Lynch to answer, and even this was the official template, following the “Monte Carlo” method.

“Probability is a manifestation of the omniscience and omnipotence of our creatures.” The high elf headed said.

“But then you should know that the view that both are 12 is wrong.”

However, Lynch still shook his head, “I know this is the final answer, and even I was shocked when I realized this question, but at this moment, I still can’t accept this.”

The high elf on the opposite side smiled and said, “It’s very simple, because biological intuition is inherently not suitable for dealing with probability problems. When evaluating and selecting uncertain situations, they rely heavily on intuition. But this is determined by evolutionary advantages. , We have no way to change.”

“The evaluation of uncertain situations in the brain depends on emotional factors, and the risk-reward part is also completed by the dopamine mechanism of your brain. This circuit mechanism is for the reward circuit of the brain, especially the motivation and emotional decision-making part. It played a huge role.”

“However, these are the distracting thoughts that we need to abandon when we learn magic.”

“The study of magic itself violates this intuition, or goes beyond probability.”

The high elves on the opposite side talked to themselves all the way, as if they were enlightening Lynch, as if he revealed some magical mysteries.

Suddenly, Lynch spoke.

“But if at the beginning, the host didn’t know which door had a hall scroll?”

The high elf’s eyes gradually narrowed, “Then what is the winning rate of the trade at this time?”

“If you use the Monte Carlo algorithm for multiple trials, it will be close to one result.” Lynch’s tone also became solemn.

“50%.”