Rebirth Strongest Tycoon

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Soon, the dishes were ready. Under the greeting of Yue-Kong Pao, Xia Yu brought Li Qian to the table.

During the banquet, the Yue-Kong Pao family was very enthusiastic. Xia Yu had a hearty dinner with a smile on his face. Not at all talked about unnecessary things in the middle, that is, simply chatting about homework. Xia Yu knew that Yue-Kong Pao was He planned to talk to him after dinner, and he was so happy.

After eating and drinking, the nanny took down the food, and a group of people came to the living room to drink tea.

Bessie Pao-Woo found a reason and called Li Qian to her room to chat. In a blink of an eye, only Xia Yu and Yue-Kong Pao Weng-in-law were left in the living room.

After Peter Woo filled Xia Yu’s teacup, Yue-Kong Pao took a sip of the tea and put down the teacup, exhaling a long sigh. Xia Yu realized that it was time to talk about business. He leaned forward slightly and made a listening posture. .

Yue-Kong Pao laughed and said, “Xia-sang, I invite you this time to ask you for advice, please feel free to give me advice!”

“Pao-sang, you are polite, please say, I must know all the answers, I can say no more!”

Xia Yu said with a smile on her face.

“Haha, Xia-sang is magnificent, then I will ask cheeky.”

Yue-Kong Pao smiled heartily, then smiled slightly and asked: “Xia-sang, your “Jiuding Daily”, but I will read every issue. The above articles and news are of very high quality, and I can’t find more in Hong Kong. Good newspaper.”

“Thank you!”

Yue-Kong Pao first flattered Xia Yu to be a foreshadowing. Xia Yu smiled and said thank you.

“The analysis on the Hong Kong transportation market written in the newspaper today is very incisive and detailed. After reading it, I have made a lot of profits, but I have some questions in my heart. You also know that the situation of the world freight transport market in the past few years is really bad. , How do you judge that shipping will rise?”

Yue-Kong Pao slowly said, and looked towards Xia Yu with scorching eyes.

In fact, this is a euphemism. In fact, after reading this article, Yue-Kong Pao thought about it all day, which conflicted with his point of view!

He judged that in the next few years, even more than ten years, the freight transport market will be in a downturn, and the global freight transport market will enter a depression period, but the view of “Jiuding Daily” is exactly the opposite of his judgment.

Although Yue-Kong Pao believes in his own judgment, judging from the quality of “Jiuding Daily” until now, the article is impossible, so Yue-Kong Pao wants to know the deep reasons and see if he has overlooked something.

Not only Yue-Kong Pao, Peter Woo also raised his ears, wanting to know Xia Yu’s views and opinions, after all, this is too important!

“Pao-sang, I will display one’s slight skill before an expert, and talk about my humble opinion, please don’t take it off if you don’t say it well!”

Xia Yu said modestly.

“Xia-sang don’t have to be humble, please!”

Yue-Kong Pao said with a smile, then made a gesture of please, and then made a gesture of listening.

“Actually, this article is right or wrong!”

Xia Yu pondered for a moment, said slowly, Yue-Kong Pao and Peter Woo were immediately frowned.

Without waiting for them to inquire, Xia Yu continued: “Pao-sang, you should be very clear that the shipping industry has cycles. Throughout the past 100 years, the cycle of prosperity and crisis of the shipping industry basically occurs once every 10 years, and it starts again and again. And follow a very similar trajectory.”

Yue-Kong Pao is nodded with recognition, he has a deep understanding of this point, he has experienced it once before, and he has never remembered it!

After the “2 World War” to the mid to late 60s, the boom and decline cycles of the global shipping market were relatively short-lived, and the entire shipping market was in a low and turbulent consolidation phase. Until 1967, when the Arab-Israeli War broke out, Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal became a forward position. The canal was closed for 8 years. Ships detouring Suez Canal in the past had to travel far to the Cape of Good Hope, which greatly stimulated shipping industry.

Apart from this, the world’s industrial trade in the late 60s was also in a period of prosperity. During this period, the volume of global maritime trade advanced by leaps and bounds rose from 1966 billion tons in 1.81 to 1973 billion tons in 3.23, an increase of 78%, 7 The global demand for ships during the year was greater than the total demand in the past 2 years after the “20nd World War”. Despite the rapid expansion of shipbuilding volume, the capacity is still in short supply, making it difficult to find one ship in the market. In an instant, the shipping industry became the most promising and most profitable industry at the time, and banks joined the shipping industry. Therefore, the late 60s was also known as the golden age of the development of the global shipping market, but hidden dangers were buried. From 1970 to 1971, a two-handed VLCC was about 2 million USD, but by 26 it rose to 1972 million -61 million USD. It almost tripled.

However, in the summer of 1973, the Fourth Middle East War broke out, and the Arab member countries in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to impose an oil embargo on Israel and related countries, and greatly increased the price of crude oil, which caused the price of crude oil to rise by more than two times, which eventually triggered the global Sexual economic crisis.

The decrease in oil import demand has caused a heavy blow to oil transportation, one of the important components of shipping, and the freight rate collapsed instantly. In December, the VLCC freight rate plummeted to around 12WS, a drop of nearly 80%. In addition, rising oil prices have exacerbated the global economic recession, which has affected every corner of the shipping industry, including the dry bulk and container shipping markets, as well as the newbuilding and second-hand ship markets.

After that, the shipping market entered a long period of recession and malaise. Although there was a short-term rebound and recovery during this period, the trend of recession has not been substantially eased. Freight is basically under the transportation cost. Tankers are idle up to more than 1000 10000 DWT, and the volume and price of the two-hand ship transaction are also falling. For example, the 2-ton tanker built in 1970 was about 200,000 million USD in 1973, but it fell to 52 million in 1977 USD has fallen by as much as 5% in less than 4 years.

It can be said that the past few years have been very difficult. Yue-Kong Pao has also relied on its volume advantages to reduce costs and survive and develop in this difficult environment.

This cold winter allowed Yue-Kong Pao to clearly recognize the situation in the world shipping market and also expressed pessimism about the future of shipping. He already has plans to go ashore.

But in this case, the “Jiuding Daily” made a clear statement that the winter of the shipping market has passed and spring is coming. How can this not make Yue-Kong Pao’s heart shake?

“Pao-sang, there are too many idle ships on the market now. Whether it is a new ship or a second-hand ship, they are all waiting for someone to take over. In this case, the freight rate is difficult to pull up.”

“But Pao-sang, you run all around the world all year round, especially when passing through the Middle East. I wonder how you feel about it?”

Xia Yu asked suddenly.

Yue-Kong Pao eyes narrowed, and immediately understood the underlying meaning of Xia Yu, but instead said: “You mean the Middle East is unstable?”

“This Pao-sang, you should know better than I am. Now it is the US-Soviet hegemony. The Middle East is an important wrestling point and a bottomless quagmire. There are a bunch of restless masters. Israel is a shit. -Stirrer, stirring the wind and the rain; Iraq is also ambitious. Other countries such as Iran and Arab are not the masters of keeping their own feet. They have their own minds. But this place is still the oil heart of the world, and interests are intertwined. It is accidentally easy to minor incident that sparks a war .”

“2 After the war, have there been few wars fought in the Middle East? One 10000 fought in the Middle East, the consequences can be imagined!”

Xia Yu slowly said.

“If this happens, isn’t the shipping market even more miserable? How could it look up?”

Peter Woo looked at Xia Yu inexplicably and asked.

Xia Yu did not say, but looked towards Yue-Kong Pao, Yue-Kong Pao frowned and thought about it, slowly said: “No, it will rise, a dozen in the Middle East, oil prices will rise, and tanker business is definitely not easy to do, but The factories all around the world can’t stop. If you can’t burn oil, you can burn more affordable coal. When the time comes, the coal boat business will be very good.”

“But it is more difficult to transport coal than oil, and the port will definitely be congested. With the addition of dry bulk cargo, it is very likely to rise!”

“It’s just that this wonderful scene is absolutely not long, and it will prosper for a few years at most!”

Yue-Kong Pao shook his head and said affirmatively. He didn’t say one more thing, that is, this can only be achieved under the premise that it happens. If the Middle East is not chaotic, even if it is a few years of prosperity, don’t think about it.

“Yes, that’s why I said it was right or wrong. It will prosper, but it will prosper part of the market other than tankers, and it will not be prosperous how many years.”

“It’s just that I don’t need to be written out, Pao-sang, you should understand why.”

Xia Yu said calmly.

Yue-Kong Pao nodded means understanding.

Xia Yu wants to use public opinion to influence the stock price of Jardine Air Cargo Terminals Ltd.. Naturally, it must be as unfavorable as possible for air transport. Therefore, it is only possible to talk about the good news about shipping, and impossible to tell the bad news.

“Hey!”

After Peter Woo figured it out, it was impossible to bear sighed. Yue-Kong Pao glanced at him, but did not say about him, because Yue-Kong Pao knew why his son-in-law sighed.

“Pao-sang, take the liberty to ask, do you want to go ashore?”

Xia Yu hesitated for a while, then asked.

As soon as Xia Yu said this, Yue-Kong Pao pondered for a while, and slowly nodded and said, “Yes, I have this idea.”