The Whip of the God of Basketball

　　 On June 6, at 6 pm Western time, the 2000-2001 NBA Finals officially began at the Staples Center, home of the Los Angeles Lakers. Their opponents will be the former rivals of the Philadelphia 76ers.

　　 In the first four finals in the 1980s, three of them were duels between the 76ers and the Lakers. When Allen Iverson led the team to defeat the Bucks in the seventh game of life and death in the Eastern Conference Finals and advance to the Finals, this time the battle of rivals that has gone through 20 years will begin on the floor of the Finals.

　　 This game is so eye-catching, not only because of the history of the two teams, but also because they are also the two most watched teams in the east and west this season. One is the defending champion, who was a bit dormant in the regular season, but was invincible in the playoffs. He was devastated all the way and rushed to the finals with an unprecedented record of sweeping three rounds; the other was brilliant in the regular season, and they took the lead. Becoming the most dazzling star of the year, he walked on thin ice in the playoffs, playing very hard and tenacious all the way, and finally returned to the finals under the double Zuoyou of strength and luck.

　　 The first Finals was in Los Angeles. The Lakers' momentum can be said to be in full swing. They may create the myth of unbeaten playoffs. In particular, their opponent is the Philadelphia 76ers-the creator of the best record in the NBA history of the playoffs. In the 1983 Finals, the Lakers shaved a bald head and only lost in the playoffs. It would be of great significance to the Lakers to win this honor by sweeping the 76ers.

In the Staples Arena, many fans carry painted brooms or slogans with the word "Sweep". They shake these objects unscrupulously and yell at the weak Philadelphia 76ers. Pressure. The whole arena is full of a kind of fanatical restlessness, almost overturning the top of the arena.

　　 In the box above the arena, the Celtics’ trusted assistant coach Fox-Lyon was quietly drinking a cold beer with the team’s deputy general manager Darryl Morey.

　　 Morey is a very tall guy, about 6 feet 6, he has a plump face and a baby-like smile. He studied at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where his interest was in mathematics. After graduation, he founded a company that provides operational data analysis and sports information consulting for professional teams. The Celtics are one of his services.

Chris Wallace once worked with Darryl Morey because of problems with the team’s management and operational data. He came to the Celtics in Leon, Pitino was forced to dismiss classes and the use of basketball data showed signs of prowess. Next, Morey was hired by Wallace as the team's deputy general manager, responsible for data theory and data integration.

According to Chris Wallace’s idea, scouts like Leon are responsible for data collection and preliminary processing, CFO Westland provides technical support, and Morey will finalize the data and theoretical support. Find the direction of the team's development in the vast numbers.

After a season of hard work, data theory has successfully become an important basis for Celtic coaches’ coaching, selection and management, but it is far from reaching the point of guiding ideology. Experience, intuition, and connections still dominate the team’s operation. . This is a good start for Morey. At least many things prove that there is still a huge potential for the application of mathematics in sports competitions.

"The data shows that the probability of the Lakers winning this game...should be...70% to 80%." Morey took a sip of beer and took out his small notebook and said to Leon .

　　 The two came to Los Angeles together the day before yesterday, with the purpose of examining the Celtics’ favorite picks. In this year’s draft, they hold three first-round picks and have plenty of opportunities to choose.

　　 "Which model did you use again?" Leon lay on the seat casually, looking at the beer in his glass but couldn't take his mouth.

　　 "I used the Porbit regression model." Morey replied as he continued to sip beer and altered the notebook with a pen.

"The premise of the Porbit model is that the assumption of hidden element residuals obeys the standard normal distribution, which is not a good way to predict the outcome of a game, especially for special games like the finals. If used to calculate the regular The winning rate is pretty good. And are your assumptions strict? If you are not strict enough, it will be meaningless. There are too many variables. To be honest, I am not sure to make a good setting. Of course, if you can’t calculate the result I can do it for you.” Leon said, drank the wine in the glass, then took the notebook from Morey's hand, tore off a piece of paper and drew on it with a pen for a while.

Porbit uses the maximum likelihood function to find the extreme value. This is a piece of cake for Leon. He calculates the answer after a while. According to Morey's model, the probability of the Lakers winning the game is percent. Seventy-four point five.

"At seventy-four point five, the probability of the Lakers winning, but who knows, I think the 76ers will win by then. So many people think the Lakers will sweep away. If you change to me, you will kill the Lakers with your mouth. , Even if it’s only one game.” During his one-year scouting career, Leon has become more and more aware of combining statistics and intuition to look at basketball. It is undoubtedly foolish to use data in isolation, and relying solely on intuition is nothing but heaven. .

　　At this time, the game has started. Under the enforcement of Joe Crawford, the huge Shaquille O’Neal and the tree-like Mutombo jumped the ball in the middle circle, and the battle between David and Goliath started.

　　 Morey seems to be more interested in Leon's calculation process on the notebook. His eyes stay on the notebook most of the time, and he is indifferent to the game itself.

　　 This is Morey’s first business trip with Leon. He has long heard of Leon’s digital talent. This is one of the reasons why he is willing to join the Celtics.

　　 But soon he discovered that Leon is much busier as a scout than his deputy general manager. The two are not involved in the scope of their work, so there is no opportunity to work together. After Leon became an assistant coach, the position of scout was vacant again, and Chris Wallace decided to let Morey take charge of the signing of the players, not just on the paper. Leon will continue to be responsible for the rookie selection work, and the free agent inspection work has been announced to stop, which means that except for March to June, he no longer has to fly around the world.

The progress of the first game of the Finals was beyond most people's expectations. The Lakers, with super insider O'Neal and new star outside Kobe Bryant, failed to directly tear the 76ers to pieces at Staples. Instead, they were at Iverson. Under the leadership of, the black shirts who lacked talent and relied on tough defense and ugly offensive positions even maintained a 6-point lead in the first half.

　　 In the second half, the tenacious 76ers and the Lakers entered a hand-to-hand fight, especially in the fourth quarter, when both offenses stalled, and the two teams unexpectedly scored in overtime. In these five minutes full of uncertainty, Iverson, who has scored 41 points in regular time, scored 7 points in a row. With 48 points in the audience, he used his own power to KO the unbeatable Lakers. , Let the whole Staples fall into silence, the sweeping sound will never appear in people's ears again.

Leon and Morey witnessed this miracle in the box. At the end of the game, Leon said to Morey: "I should make a bet with you before the game, or make a bet with the company, so that I can definitely make a big difference. Make a fortune."

　　 "I heard that almost all major casinos in the United States have banned you from entering. I wonder if the company will ban you from placing bets?" Morey joked.

"Casino or something, it's really boring, even if you ask me to go, I won't go again. After all, there is no gambling more fun and exciting than the annual draft. Okay, the game is over, let's go Look at our bet."

　　……………………

More than half a month ago, Auerbach officially announced in the Boston media as the honorary president of the Celtics that the team’s former scout Fox-Lyon will become the Celtics’ assistant coach. This is also Kyle. Special person's third assistant coach. The announcement of this news did not arouse too many surprises, because before that, the New York media had repeatedly reported that the Celtics’ talented scout Fox-Leon was likely to be the team’s assistant coach, and eventually News of becoming Auerbach's successor.

The main person who broke the news is of course Pete Vixie, and Wojnalovsky, as a good friend of Leon, also played a role in fueling the flames~www.NovelMTL.com~ Leon appeared in the sports version overnight. On major headlines, various rumors and anecdotes about him also appeared in small tofu articles and sports reviews, especially Vickers’s writing of "He is the only one who can prevent Auerbach from smoking cigars." Leon has aroused the curiosity of many people and became "important evidence that Leon will be Auerbach's successor."

However, as the playoffs are in full swing and the finals with a lot of topics are officially launched, the news of the birth of an assistant coach is soon forgotten in the waste paper. Leon's life does not seem to be much at present. Change, as a year ago, he still has to run around for the draft.

After 　　 and Morey came out of Staples, both of them were slightly drunk. They went to a coffee shop not far from the arena together, and they made an appointment with the person they wanted to meet there.

　　 Early contact with rookies or rookies’ family members in the NBA is against league regulations. Once such private contacts are discovered, the team will face severe penalties. So Leon and Morey arrived in Los Angeles this time in the name of watching the finals, and now it is coffee time after watching the game.

　　In the box of the coffee shop, Leon finally met face to face the young man he had been observing and liked, the guard from the University of Arizona, Gilbert Arenas.

　　 "In fact, we didn't have to take the risk to arrange such an early meeting." Leon said the first sentence when he saw Arenas. "Why?" "Because there are not too many teams optimistic about you." "So?" "In order to express our sincerity~www.NovelMTL.com~you are welcome to visit and read, the latest, fastest and hottest serial The works are all at ~www.NovelMTL.com~ For mobile users, please go to read.