Wealth

The balance of power between the two warring parties is very different. "The Iraq War is basically a war of suspense.

but. The impact of this war on the world economy is full of suspense.

As the war situation has become increasingly clear, the world’s major economic organizations have recently predicted that the world economic growth rate will remain above 3% this year. The U.S. economy is most affected by the war.

Because of the expected impact of the war in Iraq. The consumer confidence index has been greatly affected by Jing Liang, which is obviously detrimental to the economic recovery, especially when international oil prices have begun to climb.

Regarding this point, Fan Wuyi could see clearly that the economic reaction before the wars was almost the same, when the war was overcast. In other words, when expectations for future wars are still unclear, international oil prices are generally going to rise. After the war begins, the war situation will become clearer, international oil prices will fall in response, and the US stock market will begin to rebound, and the US dollar exchange rate will continue to strengthen.

Therefore, Fan Investment Group is also starting to make profits in the futures market and the stock market in response to the current situation. If it works properly. It is not without a small supplement to gain a tens of billions of dollars.

However, Fan Wubing has carefully observed the views of some mainstream media. Most of them believe that the Iraq War will not last very long and will be beneficial to the world economy this year. However, we should also see the post-war developments in different regions and countries. It will be even more unbalanced.

The war has the greatest positive effect on the U.S. economy. War-related arms industry and other sectors have benefited. Iraq’s post-war reconstruction will bring a large number of orders for U.S. companies, and U.S. domestic investment and consumer confidence will increase accordingly. Britain, which is actively participating in the war, will also have greater gains, while Russia, France, and Germany will have relatively little war dividends. Therefore, the war will cause an imbalance in the economic growth of these countries.

The war cannot fundamentally solve the internal contradictions of the US economy, nor will it change the economic power of the major powers.

Some people think. There is no doubt that the United States can win the war. But it may not be able to win economic growth. This is because many problems facing the US economy will not be resolved because of the Iraq war.

First. It is because war cannot solve the problem of overcapacity in the new economy. The economic recession in the United States in recent years stems from the overcapacity of the new economy represented by four industries. Although war will help digest the production capacity of the new economy to a certain extent, The effect is limited.

Second, the peak of the US real estate industry is passing. After the stock market bubble burst, Americans lost about seven trillion U.S. dollars. In recent years, the booming real estate industry has become the main force driving the U.S. economy. Through the appreciation of real estate, Americans were compensated for their losses in the stock market from 30,000 to 4 trillion U.S. dollars.

But the most recent one. During the period, the housing vacancy rate in the United States was as high as 20%. Even the victory of the war did not expand people's demand for real estate.

In addition, the exports of many manufacturing industries other than the arms industry are sluggish. Due to the economic downturn in Europe and Japan, the exports of the US manufacturing industries have been greatly affected. War struggles are unlikely to bring too many favorable factors to the economic recovery of Europe and Japan. Therefore, there is no hope for US manufacturing exports in the short term.

Although war will stimulate some industrial sectors in the United States, it is still unknown how long this war boom will last. Because of the huge expenditure of the war. The fiscal deficit of the United States and the international current account deficit have increased significantly. The negative impact of the double deficit on the US economy cannot be underestimated.

Will the dollar's trend remain strong? How big is the oil price fall? Will OPEC limit production and insure prices? These are unknowns.

At this time, Iraq’s oil exports had a limited impact on world oil prices, and oil price fluctuations were mainly caused by international capital speculation and public psychological panic. But once the Americans win. Therefore, Iraq’s post-war reconstruction requires a large amount of oil to pay for it. The export volume is naturally different from the time when the United Nations oil-for-food program was implemented. The end of the war, coupled with the fact that Iraq has increased its oil exports, has made the fall in world oil prices inevitable, which will benefit the growth of the world economy. but. For each specific country. The situation is quite different.

The oil companies of the United States and Britain control 70% of the oil resources of Arab countries. The victory of the Iraq War will further consolidate their position, and the oil sources of the two countries will be more secure. For France, Germany, and Japan As far as the majority of developing countries are concerned, the source of oil is likely to be more and more restricted by the United States and Britain. The issue of energy security may become a new insecure factor.

The Russian economy is in the process of recovery, and rising international oil prices will be an important driving force for Russia's economic recovery. Once the Iraq War is over, the drop in oil prices will have a major impact on Russia's economy.

One of the foundations of the Russian Federation’s budget this year is to maintain crude oil prices at around US$25 per barrel. If oil prices fall below US$20 per barrel, Russia’s budget plan for this year will fail, and Putin will feel very headache.

Experts also believe that the influence of the Iraqi war fighters...Er Tan is the heart armor of the globalization of the economy, and the global anti-globalization wave is rapidly unfolding. This time the United States is pursuing unilateralism and intends to put aside the United Nations in its war against Iraq, which has caused a wave of anti-war on a global scale. This sentiment is bound to continue after the war. Become a force to promote anti-globalization.

In the past two decades, with the rapid economic growth of Asia, especially East Asia, the economic relations between the United States and Asian countries have developed rapidly. As of last year, the U.S. international current account deficit was 500 billion U.S. dollars, of which more than 200 billion U.S. dollars was generated in Asia.

According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund, at the end of last year, the world's foreign exchange reserves totaled more than 23 trillion U.S. dollars. About sixty of them were owned by Asian countries, and most of the foreign exchange reserves of Asian countries were invested in the United States. Bonds and the stock market.

It can be said that it is Asian countries that support the strong position of the dollar. At the same time, the arcs from the Middle East and Central Asia to South Asia and East Asia have been conflicting and complicated in recent years, and they have become a problematic area that attracts the attention of the United States. therefore. After the Iraq war. The United States will further strengthen its ties with Asian countries in political, military, and economic aspects.

It is foreseeable that the impact of the Iraq war on the world economy will go far beyond whether to stimulate economic growth. Although from the perspective of stimulating US economic growth, the military expenditures brought about by this war and the reconstruction of Iraq after the war are a stimulus.

However, this war will be a major trauma to Iraq and the Middle East. The wealth created over the years has been destroyed. It is also the destruction of human wealth and a destruction of human development. From the perspective of American taxpayers, a large amount of taxes that could be used to increase social welfare and promote civil technology exhibitions are used on arms that cannot be consumed by people. This is also a huge waste in itself.

Of course, the factors affecting the domestic economy are not the only factors that have been expected to be successful in Iraq.

Due to the outbreak of the ** epidemic, a series of market development and business exchanges planned by many local governments have been significantly affected. The annual investment promotion activities have been affected, and some have been postponed. Compared with the same period, the turnover decreased by almost 80% compared with the previous session. Due to the domestic epidemic, although the mainland government has always emphasized that it is not relevant and the impact is minimal, the international response has been obvious. For example, Fan's investment A branch of the group organized a delegation to participate in business activities in Vladimir, Russia. It was also unable to make the trip due to difficulties in obtaining visas. The Philippine merchandise exhibition planned to be held in March was also postponed to August.

influenced by. Orders for light industry, crafts, and woven products such as summer cloth and sackcloth, which were mostly sold in samples, decreased significantly, new customers for motorcycle products decreased, and export orders for agricultural products such as frozen pork decreased significantly.

at the same time. Neighboring countries have begun to respond to the domestic epidemic, and the logistics of import and export goods have been affected. Myanmar has suspended China-Myanmar border trade activities, the Xinjiang section of the China-Mongolia border, and the China-Pakistan Hong Qilafu port have been temporarily suspended. Lithuania has banned the import of animal-source food and animals, raw materials, feed, and feed additives from China, Thailand, and Vietnam.

At present, some companies affiliated to companies also report that the governments or importers of Spain, the United Kingdom and other countries require domestic companies to issue certificates of virus-free export of goods. Some importers in the United Kingdom and France have also proposed that China's inspection and inspection agencies issue ** disinfection certificates for exported clothing, rubber, cartons and other products, which have increased the export costs of enterprises.

In view of the hindrance of face-to-face business activities, the UU Reading www.uukanshu.com Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation Committee proposed to vigorously develop commerce and maintain normal trade order as much as possible.

Under this leading ideology, the Foreign Economic and Trade Commission recommended to key enterprises a number of online trade websites, including the e-commerce platform built by Fan's Investment Group. At the same time, after meeting with the person in charge of the Foreign Economic and Trade Commission, Fan Wubing agreed to give free support for the production of three-dimensional advertisements on the website and the distribution of business information on the website platform of the Fan Investment Group. The platform builds a trade bridge for various enterprises and provides the latest information services such as finance and insurance.

After receiving strong support from Fan Wuyao, the Foreign Economic and Trade Commission also began to step up the construction of the import and export commodity database. The central government provided special funds to speed up the trial operation of the port logistics network, and set up online negotiations and online transactions for enterprises. Platform.

At the same time, the central government also stated that it will provide a three-month online training of e-commerce courses for all foreign economic and trade enterprises, and carry out online tutoring and answering questions. In order to improve the application capabilities of enterprise e-commerce.

all in all. Although ** has not formally entered the high-level topic, in fact, some work is already underway, especially Fan Investment Group is beginning to prepare for the arrival of the epidemic. All kinds of preparations are made.